Significant Dates

India: Anniversary of Sikh militants seizing Golden Temple in Amritsar (1986) (Possible protests and demonstrations)
Japan: Showa Day (Public holiday)
United Kingdom: Royal wedding of Prince William and Catherine Middleton taking place at Westminster Abbey in London. Significant disruptions are likely due to heightened security presence and large influx of visitors to the city. Bank holiday in England and Wales.

Government Warnings

Morocco: On 28 April 2011 the U.S. Consulate General in Casablanca issued a Warden Message, which reads in part as follows:

“Explosion in Marrakesh – Thursday, April 28, 2011

“We are concerned about the explosion today in Marrakesh and express our deepest sympathy for the victims and their families. We have no information at this point that any U.S. citizens were among those killed or injured. U.S. consular staff have been sent to Marrakesh to assist as appropriate. We urge U.S. citizens to avoid Djemaa el-Fna square for the time being in order not to impede the Moroccan authorities’ rescue operations and investigation. U.S. citizens needing assistance should call the U.S. Consulate General in Casablanca at 0661-79-70-00 or after hours at 0661-13-19-39.”

Liberia: On 28 April 2011 the U.S. Embassy in Monrovia issued the following Warden Message: “The U.S. Embassy in Monrovia has information that the demonstration by Opposition Movement for Progressive Change (OMPC), previously scheduled earlier in the month, is now planned for April 30th. OMPC leader Simeon Freeman has called for participants to demonstrate simultaneously in all 15 Liberian counties.

“We expect these demonstrations to be peaceful, but ask U.S. citizens to be mindful that peaceful demonstrations can become confrontational and escalate into violence with little or no warning. Consequently, the Embassy urges all U.S. citizens to be on alert, avoid crowds, and exercise caution if within the vicinity of any demonstrations. ..”

Today’s Hotspots

India: A bandh (general strike) called by leftist parties crippled Kerala state on 29 April 2011. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) coalition organized the dawn-to-dusk shutdown to pressure the Indian government to ban the use of controversial pesticides called endosulfans. The strike halted buses, taxis and autorickshaws, and limited the activities of government offices and universities. Many businesses and hotels also remained closed. Long-distance trains remained in operation. There were no reports of violence during the action.

Libya/Tunisia: On 28 April 2011 forces loyal to Muammar Khadafy and rebel troops briefly crossed into Tunisia as they fought for control of the Dehiba-Wazin border crossing. Reports indicate that Libyan forces clashed with Tunisian military and fired shells at the Tunisian border town of Dehiba, injuring at least one resident. Khadafy’s forces originally crossed the border in pursuit of Libyan rebels who had fled into Tunisian territory. Khadafy’s forces later apologized for the incursion; the Tunisian government has issued a harsh statement condemning the actions of the Libyan troops.

Morocco: On 29 April 2011 Moroccan authorities indicated that the cafe bombing in the tourist town of Marrakech a day earlier was an act of terrorism. Officials indicated that they were looking into all possible links to the incident, including at the potential involvement of the regional al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) terrorist group. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed 16 people and injured nearly two dozen others; most of the fatalities were foreigners.

An ongoing strike at subsidiary airline Atlas Blue continues to impact operations of Royal Air Morocco. Atlas Blue ground staff have been on strike since 1 March 2011, and subsequent moves by both sides have increased tensions. Royal Air Morocco has moved aircraft and staff from Atlas Blue to other subsidiaries; counter moves by striking employees have hindered Royal Air Morocco’s operations at Marrakech-Menara Airport (GMMX/RAK), including blocking passengers’ check-ins. The ongoing situation may impede the airline’s operations at other airports.

Syria: Anti-government protests are underway in Syria on 29 April 2011. As has been the case since the protest campaign began, complete and reliable information is difficult to obtain because of media restrictions. Reports so far, however, indicate that tens of thousands of people participated in rallies in various locations, including a Damascus suburb, the central city of Homs, the city of Qamishli (located in the Kurdish area), the eastern city of Deir Ezzor and in Daraya and Zabadani, located close to Damascus. State-run media sources claimed that armed gunmen attacked a military post in the southern city of Deraa, killing four soldiers and kidnapping two. Army troops fired shots into the air in an attempt to prevent people from protesting in the city; it is not known if any demonstrations materialized. Security forces also reportedly fired on a crowd of approximately 1,000 demonstrators in Latakia, injuring at least five of them. In Damascus, Republic Guard troops patrolled the circular road around the city, and security forces manned checkpoints across the capital, according to eyewitnesses.

Meanwhile on 28 April the Syrian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood issued a statement encouraging mass protests in the country on 29 April. Prior to the announcement, the Brotherhood had refrained from directly supporting the ongoing protests in the country.

Uganda: Violent protests broke out in Uganda on 29 April 2011 over the arrest of prominent opposition leader Kizza Besigye. Protesters in Kampala burned tires and threw rocks at buildings and vehicles in the city’s downtown area. Security forces responded by firing tear gas, rubber bullets and live rounds; at least two people were killed and more than 100 others were injured. Protesters also erected burning barricades along the main road to Entebbe International Airport (HUEN/EBB), prompting authorities to open fire on the crowds at the blockade site and simultaneously spraying nearby homes with live fire. There have also been reports of security forces beating protesters in the streets. The violent demonstrations have affected at least seven areas of Kampala.

Besigye was arrested on 28 April for staging walk-to-work protests over rising food and fuel prices. Security forces broke into his vehicle, spraying him with pepper spray before arresting him. It was the fifth time in the course of April that authorities have detained Besigye for organizing protest actions against the government.

WORLDWIDE

Demonstrations and rallies are expected to take place at various locations worldwide on 1 May 2011 in observance of International Labor Day/May Day. While most actions are likely to remain peaceful, travelers may face transportation delays and other disruptions. Furthermore, there is a potential for violence at some rallies. Below is an overview of some of the locations where rallies have been announced and/or are anticipated. This list is not necessarily exhaustive, and individuals undertaking travel on 1 May should check their specific destination to determine whether rallies and/or disturbances are likely.

In Germany, approximately 5,000 police officers will be deployed in Berlin over concerns that violence will accompany May Day demonstrations in the city’s Kreuzberg district. Rioting and clashes between protesters and police officers have occurred during May Day demonstrations in previous years in Berlin and other German cities.

In Greece, public and private sector union members will stage a protest rally at Kalthmonos Square in Athens at 1100 local time. Separately, dockworkers will stage a 24-hour strike on 1 May that is expected to disrupt sea traffic; the strike will be accompanied by a demonstration at Karaiskaki Square in Piraeus at 0530 local time. Disruptions are also expected to affect rail services because of a strike by rail workers.

In Switzerland, police officers will be deployed to all official marches and speeches in Zurich and have indicated that they will not tolerate scuffles or other violence during these actions. Extreme-left activists have reportedly threatened to engage in disruptions during a speech by Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey, but no further details regarding the threat are available.

In Poland, Warsaw’s annual International Labor Day march will be moved to the northwestern coastal city of Szczecin. Parade organizers cited the beatification ceremony of Pope John Paul II, which will be broadcast publicly amid large crowds in Warsaw on 1 May, as reason for the cancellation (see below for more information on the beatification). Szczecin was selected by labor activists to highlight the government’s neglect of the shipbuilding industry in the city.

Meanwhile, officials in Moscow and St. Petersburg have approved plans by two nationalist groups to stage marches on May Day. The recently banned “Movement Against Illegal Immigration” and the “Slavic Union” are organizing the actions but have indicated that they will not use their organizations’ symbols, which have been banned. The march in Moscow will proceed from the Oktyabrskoye pole subway station to the Shukinskoe subway station, following a path along Marshall Biryuzov Street and Marshall Vasilevsky Street; permission has been given for up to 1,000 participants. In St. Petersburg, the march will take place on the main Nevsky Avenue, ending at Isaakievsky Square.

In South Africa, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) will hold a rally to commemorate May Day at Cape Town’s Athlone Stadium. The rally was originally slated to take place at Cape Town Stadium on 1 May, but the union relocated the event over a dispute with city officials over the cost of renting the facility for the day. COSATU has stated that it will be renting buses to transport people from the Athlone train station and residential areas to the stadium for the rally.

In Zimbabwe, International Workers’ Day marches have been banned in the cities of Bulawayo, Kwekwe and Mutare. Unions have vowed to stage demonstrations despite the ban, increasing the potential for violent confrontations between participants and security forces.

In Mauritius, members of several trade unions are planning to participate in demonstrations to mark International Worker’s Day. The gatherings will take place at the Place des Taxis in Beau-Bassin from 0900-1530 local time to protest rising prices, layoffs and alleged abuses of workers’ rights. Workers are also expected to march from other locations in Beau-Bassin, Rose Hill and Port Louis, the capital, to the Place des Taxis.

In Cambodia, approximately 3,000 workers are expected to gather in Phnom Penh for a rally organized by the Coalition of Cambodian Apparel Workers’ Democratic Union. Prime Minister Hun Sen banned May Day demonstrations following the announcement, but protest organizers stated that the event would take place as planned.

In a separate development, the beatification of Pope John Paul II will take place in Vatican City on 1 May 2011. The ceremony is expected to cause some level of disruption in Rome due to the large number of visitors to the city (approximately 80,000 people are expected to travel from Poland alone). The airspace within a 10 mi/16 km radius of Vatican City will be closed from 0500 to 1600 local time (0300-1400 UTC) due to the event. Rome Urbe Airport (LIRU/ROM) will also be closed, but the airspace restrictions will not affect operations at Fiumicino (LIRF/FCO) and Ciampino (LIRA/CIA) airports. A number of demonstrations and marches related to May Day are expected in Rome, causing further disruption to travel and transportation in the city.

In Chile, as many as 50,000 people are expected to participate in a May Day demonstration in central Santiago. Authorities will deploy thousands of police officers to contain the demonstration due to incidents of violence in the past on May Day. The demonstration will consist of a march down Avenida Libertador Bernardo O’Higgins from Avenida Ecuador to Avenida Brazil, where participants will gather for a rally featuring several speeches. As with any demonstration, there is potential for the outbreak of violence incited by radical protesters. However, preventative measures should contain any clashes, limiting disruptions in the city.

Significant Dates

Afghanistan: Anniversary of Mujahideen victory over Soviet forces (Violence and attacks possible.)
Armenia: Opposition Armenian National Congress to hold rally on Liberty Square in Yerevan. Traffic disruptions may occur, but no violence is anticipated.
Thailand: Anniversary of 2004 clash between Islamic militants and security forces at Krue Se mosque in Pattani, which left more than 100 people dead. (Possibility of retaliatory attacks)

Government Warnings

Ecuador: On 27 April 2011 the U.S. Embassy in Quito issued a Warden Message that includes the following: “The U.S. Embassy in Quito advises U.S. citizens living or traveling in Ecuador that a series of large explosions and ash emissions at the Tungurahua volcano near Baños has caused the Government of Ecuador to evacuate communities in the surrounding area. Flights between Quito and Cuenca have been suspended, and damage to crops is evident. The U.S. Embassy encourages U.S. citizens residing near or traveling in the area around Tungurahua volcano, including in the provinces of Tungurahua, Bolivar, Cotopaxi, and Chimborazo, to closely monitor local news sources and to follow the instructions of local authorities. Additionally, U.S. citizens visiting or residing in communities most directly impacted by the volcano are encouraged to consider alternate travel plans until the activity subsides.

“If travel to the area is unavoidable, please use good judgment, familiarize yourself with local evacuation and emergency notification systems, and take all appropriate safety measures, as volcanic conditions can change rapidly.

“Because Ecuador is in a region of frequent volcanoes and earthquakes, U.S. citizens are advised to keep extra food and water in their homes, and consider purchasing dust masks and heavy gloves to protect hands during ash clean-up.

“The U.S. Embassy continues to monitor the situation and will keep you apprised of new information. Also, for more information on current activity, visit the website of the Instituto Geofisico, which monitors volcanoes and earthquakes at: http://www.igepn.edu.ec/. …”

Russia: On 27 April 2011 the U.S. Embassy in Moscow issued the following Warden Message: “A group opposed to illegal immigration and migrant labor issues has received a permit to demonstrate on Sunday, May 1, 2011. Approximately 1000 participants calling for the Russian government to stop sponsoring the North Caucasus region are expected at Oktyabrskoe Pole metro station between 13:00 and 15:00. The group will march along Marshala Biryuzova Street, to Kurchatov Street (square) and continue down Marshala Vasilevskovo Street, concluding at Schukinskaya metro station.

“The nationalist nature of this demonstration raises the possibility of confrontation. We recommend that American citizens avoid this civil action. …”

Switzerland: On 28 April 2011 the U.S. Embassy in Bern issued the following Warden Message: “This Warden Message informs U.S. citizens of a demonstration planned for Friday, April 29, 2011, between 14:00 and 15:30 hours in Bern, by a Syrian group. The demonstration is directed at the U.S. Embassy and their reported purpose is drawing attention to the plight of Syrians being repressed by the Syrian government. The Bern police are expecting approximately 300 demonstrators. Local police will be monitoring and providing appropriate security. U. S. citizens should avoid the demonstration area. U.S. citizens who plan to be at the Embassy at this date and time and cannot reschedule their visit should exercise vigilance in the area around the demonstration. U.S. citizens are reminded that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possibly escalate into violence. U. S. citizens are therefore urged to avoid this area if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity. U. S citizens should stay current with media coverage of local events and be aware of their surroundings at all times. …”