Today’s Hotspots

Canada: Vancouver will hold the Winter Olympics from 12-28 February 2010. There have been no reported threats and the overall assessment of risks is low. More than 15,000 police officers, private security officers and military personnel will be deployed to provide security. Security will be tight near Olympic venues, and authorities will implement various road closures and airspace restrictions during the Games. Popular tourist areas — including Granville and Robson streets — will be blocked off to motorists and will have a heightened police presence. Spectators should arrive at venues three hours before the start of outdoor events and two hours before the start of indoor events. Spectators must go through metal detectors and have their bags checked before entering venues.

The Olympics are expected to cause significant transportation disruptions throughout Vancouver; various street closures have already gone into effect in areas near Olympic venues. City officials have strongly encouraged spectators to rely on public transportation during the Olympics, as parking will not be available at Olympic venues and vehicle access will be extremely limited at most event sites. Authorities have warned city residents and visitors to expect delays of up to one hour at train stations during the Olympics.

Protesters are likely to hold demonstrations over a number of political and economic causes throughout the Games. The city of Vancouver has established “safe assembly areas” near Olympic venues for protest activities, though protesters are generally free to hold demonstrations anywhere in the city outside of the secured areas surrounding venues. The north lawn of the Vancouver Art Gallery is expected to be an epicenter for protests; a demonstration in opposition to the Olympics will be held on 12 February, the day of the opening ceremony. Demonstrations are scheduled for the entirety of the Games.

Temporary Flight Restrictions will be in place within a 30-mi/50-km radius over Vancouver and Whistler, British Columbia, from 28 January to 4 March. Flight operators must obtain an authorization from the V2010 Integrated Security Unit in order to utilize Vancouver International Airport from 29 January through 3 March. All applications must be submitted at least five days prior to the aircraft’s departure. In addition, flight operators must obtain reservations to take off from or land at Vancouver International Airport, Boundary Bay Airport (CZBB/ZBB) or Abbotsford International Airport (CYXX/YXX). General aviation flights must land at a “gateway airport” — where aircraft and passenger screening will take place — before continuing to Vancouver International Airport. There are four gateway airports in Canada and 16 in the United States.

India: On 9 February 2010 police authorities in Mumbai announced that they will heighten security at movie theaters in preparation for the release of Bollywood actor Shahrukh Khan’s upcoming film “My Name is Khan,” which opens on 12 February. Shiv Sena, a far-right Hindu nationalist group, attacked two movie theaters in Mumbai — the Mehul Theater in the western suburb of Mulund and the Shreyas Theater in Ghatkopar — that were selling advance tickets for the film on 9 February. Shiv Sena also held protests in the Kanjurmarg, Bandra and Khar areas of the city. The group has denounced Khan for recent comments he made in support of Pakistani cricket players and has threatened to attack more theaters that screen the movie.

Sri Lanka: Opposition parties called for nationwide protests on 9 February 2010 following the arrest of opposition leader and former General Sarath Fonseka. The government has accused Fonseka of plotting a coup to topple President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who defeated Fonseka in the January 2010 presidential election. Fonseka has said that the charges against him are fabricated. Thus far, there have been no reports of major protests in Colombo, but demonstrations are highly likely in the coming days.

Estonia: Estonian Air officials received bomb threats that delayed flights in Tallinn and Tartu on 8 February 2010. The call was placed at approximately 1800 local time (1600 UTC). The individual claimed that an explosive device had been hidden on an aircraft. Flights were delayed at Lennart Meri Tallinn Airport (EETN/TLL) and Tartu Airport (EETU/TAY), and Tallinn Airport was evacuated while authorities searched several aircraft. Another Estonian Air flight from Tallinn was searched upon its arrival at Vilnius International Airport (EYVI/VNO). Airline representatives stated that flights on 9 February are subject to schedule changes, but that no flights will be canceled.

Ukraine: Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s party indicated on 9 February 2010 that she will not concede defeat in the country’s presidential election. Tymoshenko herself — who fell approximately 3.5 points behind her rival Viktor Yanukovich in the 7 February election — has not publicly stated her plans, but aids have indicated that they will call for a recount at approximately 1,000 polling stations despite international monitors’ reports that the election was fair. Meanwhile, Yanukovich’s Party of Regions is working to reform the coalition in Parliament, which could see Tymoshenko replaced as prime minister as early as 11 February.

”Tymoshenko has backed off her pre-election warnings that she would call for protests in response to a Yanukovich win, reducing the likelihood of large-scale demonstrations by her supporters. However, demonstrations will remain a possibility until the vote is accepted. In addition, there is the potential for additional disruptions by Yanukovich’s supporters, who have already begun to rally in Kiev, primarily at Lesya Ukrainka Square near the Central Election Commission.”

Haiti Update

Haiti: Aid and recovery efforts are ongoing in Port-au-Prince and throughout other areas impacted by a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that occurred on 12 January 2010. The U.S. military is still in control of operations at Toussaint Louverture International Airport (MTPP/PAP), and 120-140 aid flights are landing at the facility each day. Reports indicate that 2,550 flights are expected to land in Port-au-Prince through 1 March. Despite improving coordination to handle the massive influx of aid, logistical problems continue to hamper the delivery of supplies. For example, at least 100 ships are en route to Haiti, but Port-au-Prince’s main seaport still has very limited capacity and ships are required to have their own cranes and offloading equipment. The U.S. military has made it a priority to reopen the seaport, but aftershocks have delayed these efforts, and it is unclear when it will be fully operational. Ground travel also remains hazardous, and reports indicate that travel from the airport — which is located on the eastern side of Port-au-Prince — to the city’s western areas is taking up to three hours due to debris in the roadways and damage to the roads themselves.

A new food and water distribution plan became fully operational on 4 February. The plan — which is being coordinated by the United Nations, several non-governmental humanitarian agencies and the Haitian government — features 16 fixed distribution points and a coupon voucher system to receive supplies. The coupons are being specifically distributed to women in an effort to increase the likelihood of equal distribution of supplies among families. The U.N. estimates that approximately 600,000 people have been fed through this program so far. Although there have been some reports of counterfeit coupons, the system has been a vast improvement over initial distribution plans.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military — which has provided security at many distribution points and escorted aid convoys — has announced plans to begin leaving Haiti. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is expected to leave soon, as are the soldiers from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). However, 15 other naval ships, including the USNS Comfort hospital ship, will remain deployed in Haiti for the time being.

In regard to the security environment, Haitian police officers have recaptured 100 of the 4,000 inmates who escaped from Port-au-Prince’s collapsed penitentiary, and authorities have appealed to residents to notify authorities if they know a convict is in the area. The inmates are being held in prisons outside of the capital. Demonstrations to protest the slow delivery of aid continue to be reported, and residents are also voicing fears of increasing crime rates, especially in makeshift resettlement camps. For example, on 3 February approximately 300 people gathered outside the mayor’s office in Petionville to demand food, water and work, threatening to “set things ablaze” if security forces attempted to disperse them. Reports are also suggesting that hostility toward foreign journalists and photographers may be increasing, as a photographer was robbed at knifepoint on 2 February. The ever-present threat of child traffickers taking advantage of the chaos in Haiti has also been highlighted following an attempt by a group of Americans to bring 33 undocumented Haitian children into the Dominican Republic.

Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive has stated that the death toll currently stands at 212,000 people. The earthquake injured an additional 300,000 people and made 1 million people homeless throughout the impacted area.

Today’s Hotspots

Taiwan / Japan: On 7 February 2010 a preliminary 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck near the Ryukyu Islands in southern Japan off the eastern Taiwanese coast. The undersea quake struck at a depth of 10 mi/16 km and was centered in an area about 155 mi/250 km west of Taiwan. Eyewitnesses in Taipei reported feeling the strong tremor, although there were no reports of damage or injuries. Although the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center determined that there was little chance of the quake producing a destructive wave, the Japanese government issued a localized tsunami warning for the Ryukyu Islands area and advised that a small wave of around 1.6 ft/50 cm was likely to come ashore. The tsunami warning was withdrawn an hour later.

Thailand: According to reports on 8 February 2010, police and military officials will be deployed beginning on 15 February ahead of the planned protest actions by the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) on 26 February, which coincides with the announcement of the verdict against former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The security increase will take place in 38 different provinces, and nearly 200 checkpoints will be set up in Bangkok and several other provinces. The government warned that it will impose the Internal Security Act (ISA) if the situation requires it. The security measures will extend past 26 February as protest actions could continue after the ruling.

Meanwhile on 8 February, UDD members protested in front of the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) to demand answers regarding the prosecution of People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) members. The protest began at noon local time and was reportedly peaceful in nature.

Ukraine: Supporters of presidential candidate Victor Yanukovich have gathered near the Central Election Commission in Kiev on 8 February 2010 a day after he came out ahead of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in a runoff election. Reports indicate that approximately 5,000 people were participating in the action, with their numbers growing. Leaders of the Party of Regions — Yanukovich’s party — have previously indicated that 50,000 people would participate in the rally. The party has also set up dozens of tents at the presidential secretariat, the Cabinet building and the Central Election Commission.

With more than 98 percent of the vote counted, Yanukovich is ahead with 48.6 percent of the vote, while Tymoshenko has 45.81 percent. Tymoshenko has refused to concede the election, and has postponed a scheduled news conference until 9 February. She had previously threatened to call rallies if there was evidence of voter fraud; however, the election has so far met the approval of international monitors.

Thus far, the election has not prompted any unrest or a change in the security environment in Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian National Security Service (SBU) reportedly detained a Georgian national carrying a firearm, explosives and detonators on Kiev’s Independence Square on 5 February. The man was also carrying a Ukrainian passport. It is not known what he had planned to do with the explosives, but an attempted bombing at one of the pre-election rallies that took place on 5 February is being considered as a possibility.

Côte d’Ivoire: A protest against election delays and the publication of voter lists escalated into rioting in the western town of Man, located near the Liberian border, on 5 February 2010. Approximately 5,000 protesters overran the 200 security forces in town and attacked the local courthouse. Local sources indicated that the protesters attacked officials with rocks and sticks and raided the official building, taking computers and documents. Businesses and public operations were shut down in the city following the riot.

Similar protests were reported in the towns of Katiola and Divo in recent days, an indication of rising tensions ahead of long-delayed elections that are scheduled for early or mid 2010. A specific date has not yet been set.

”The recent protests come in the aftermath of President Laurent Gbagbo’s recent decision to delay the publication of voting lists following government allegations that the opposition-run electoral commission has been illegally adding voters to the register. Officials have called for a review of the lists and demanded that these voters be excluded. The opposition maintains that the recent measure is another stall tactic by the administration in an effort to retain power. Security concerns have increased as the recent protests have occurred in both the government-controlled south and in the rebels’ stronghold areas, indicating a widespread dissatisfaction with the ongoing election delays. There is an increasing threat that the ongoing delays to the vote — which was to have been held in 2005 — will result in widespread unrest. Such a development could easily destabilize the fragile nation, which is continuing to recover from years of civil war.”

Equatorial Guinea: Sources reported on 7 February 2010 that Deputy Head of National Security Captain Bienvenido Esono Engonga, stationed in the mainland city of Bata, has been dismissed from office and detained for allegedly planning a coup. Officials indicated that Engonga was currently being transported to Malabo, the capital, and that he has been replaced by a police officer. Engonga was named the second in command of security during a government reshuffle following the February 2009 attack on the presidential palace.

”Although Equatorial Guinea is a coup-prone nation, such allegations in the past have been used to remove political figures from power. An Engonga family member stated that the allegations were being used as a pretext to replace him. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema has also been known to use such measures and allegations as a means to prove that strong security measures are in place, thus deterring any potential attacks on his administration or authority.”

Guinea (Country threat level – 4): Reports on 7 February 2010 indicated that three days of clashes between Christians and Muslims in the southern Guinean town of Nzerekore have resulted in three fatalities and an undisclosed number of injuries. Security forces are deployed in the area in an attempt to quell the ongoing violent incidents. Witnesses stated that Christians appeared to be attacking Muslims with machetes and knives while soldiers fired shots into the air to try and disperse the crowds in the most recent clash. On 5 February Muslims attacked Christians after a local dispute got out of hand.

”The town of Nzerekore is the hometown of exiled junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara and the region is also home to Camara’s ethnic Christian minority group. Many people in the area have been angered by Camara’s recent exile and ouster from power. Although the recent violence initially appeared to be a religious dispute, ethnic differences and ongoing nation-wide developments have politicized the tensions aggravating the disputes. Ongoing instability concerns and simmering ethnic tensions in the nation have the potential to further aggravate the situation, and could result in ongoing violence over an extended period of time, especially in the town of Nzerekore. There are further concerns that the violence may spread, affecting security concerns in the entire country.”

Significant Dates

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Senegal: Magal de Touba (Thousands of Muslims make pilgrimage to city of Touba.)
Burundi: Unity Day (Public holiday. Banks and offices may be closed.)
Colombia: ELN Guerrilla Group Founded in 1958
Mexico: Anniversary of the Constitution (Established in 1917. Government offices and most schools close. Public gatherings are likely.)
Tanzania: Chama Cha Mapinduzi Day (Founding of the Tanzanian ruling party. Low-level political violence may occur.)

6 February
Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Italy: Venice Carnival
New Zealand: Waitangi Day (National Day) (Government offices and businesses close.)

7 February
Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Italy: Venice Carnival
Ukraine: Runoff presidential election

Government Warning

Argentina: The U.S. Embassy in Buenos Aires issued the following Warden Message on 4 February 2010: “This warden message is being issued to alert U.S. citizens that as reported in the local media, there will be a demonstration directed toward the U.S. Embassy at approximately 6:00 pm on Friday, 5 February 2010. The demonstrators plan to voice their objection with U.S. military forces in Haiti.

“The demonstration is estimated to be around 200 individuals. Groups expected to participate include: Partido de los Trabajadores, Partido Obrero, Nuevo MAS, Izquierda Socialista, Movimiento Socialista de los Trabajadores, Convergencia de Izquierda, Partido Comunista de los Trabajadores, and Frente Obrero y Socialista.

“The demonstration is expected to be of a peaceful nature. Be advised that demonstrations may turn violent at any given moment for myriad reasons.”